Zaporizhzhia is a city with two kinds of risk. Chronic: one of the largest metallurgical centers in Ukraine. Potential: Europe”s largest nuclear power plant sits 50 km from the city, occupied since March 2022 and regularly losing its external power supply. Residents have to navigate two monitoring systems at once — ordinary atmospheric and radiological.
Zaporizhzhia air quality: metallurgy, ZNPP, and two layers of risk. Photo: Rostyslav Oleksandrovych Lutsenko, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Chronic baseline: metallurgy
Zaporizhstal (since 1933) + Dniprospetsstal + Zaporizhkoks + Zaporizhzhia Aluminum Plant + Zaporizhzhia Ferroalloy Plant form the largest industrial belt of any single Ukrainian city.
Primary emissions:
– PM10 from metallurgical processes and ore handling.
– SO₂ — coke chemistry and coal combustion.
– NOx from high-temperature processes.
– Heavy metals — lead, copper, cadmium, manganese.
– PAH — polycyclic aromatics from coke plants.
Pre-war baseline: annual mean PM2.5 of 20-28 µg/m³, reaching 30-40 in the Zavodsky and Komunarsky districts. One of the worst readings in Ukraine.
2022-2024: several plants are operating at reduced capacity (shelling, evacuation, electricity shortages). The air is objectively cleaner, but the figure is unstable.
Potential risk: ZNPP
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is located in Enerhodar, on the Dnipro, 50 km southwest of Zaporizhzhia. Under southwesterly winds (statistically 20-30% of the time) a potential accident plume reaches the city within 3-5 hours.
We covered the 2022-2024 timeline at ZNPP in our earlier materials on the start of our radiation modeling and on the CZ-170 product. Short summary:
- In 2022 alone, ZNPP lost all external power supply 6 times.
- June 2023 — destruction of the Kakhovka Dam; the cooling reservoir level dropped by 3.2 m.
- 2024-2025 — new incidents: partial power losses, shelling near the perimeter.
The plant is in cold shutdown, but still holds a significant inventory of potentially volatile radionuclides in spent fuel. A catastrophic-accident scenario remains assessable, not hypothetical.
How to read two layers of risk
1. Daily (atmospheric):
The YourAirTest map shows PM2.5, NO₂, SO₂ for the district where you are — every day.
2. Potential (radiological):
Background radiation in Zaporizhzhia is normal (0.1-0.3 µSv/h). We model the accident scenario through CZ-170 — it shows where the plume would go given the current wind, if an accident were to happen.
Where in Zaporizhzhia is the air worst
- Zavodsky district — immediately adjacent to the metallurgy belt.
- Komunarsky — downwind of the prevailing air flow.
- Shevchenkivsky in the west — depending on wind direction.
Cleaner:
– Khortytsky district on Khortytsia island (nature reserve, Dnipro breezes).
– Oleksandrivsky in the northeastern part of the city.
What to do day-to-day
Normal day (PM2.5 up to 25): ordinary activity.
Peak days (PM2.5 > 50): HEPA indoors, minimize outdoor activity, especially for vulnerable groups.
Days with incidents at ZNPP (power losses, fires near the plant):
– Check CZ-170 scenarios.
– If an active incident is underway — follow State Emergency Service notifications.
– Have ready: potassium iodide in the family kit (take only on official order!), bags with documents, small water and food supply.
Post-war outlook
With economic and industrial recovery the atmospheric baseline will rise again. But under new European standards (see our piece on CSRD and monitoring reform), the large Zaporizhzhia plants will be legally bound to cut emissions sharply. That is a 5-10 year process.
Frequently asked
Should I leave Zaporizhzhia because of the potential ZNPP accident?
The risk assessment is personal. For families with young children and chronic conditions — worth weighing seriously. For healthy adults — while the scenario remains hypothetical, preparedness through information is usually sufficient.
Are there good districts for a family with small children?
Khortytsky is the cleanest — away from the metallurgy belt and next to a nature reserve on the river. Schools and clinics are available.
How confident can I be that the map shows correct numbers for my district?
We calibrate the model against ground-sensor data (EcoCity / Arnika) and use CALPUFF dispersion for zones without direct monitoring. We publish the uncertainty interval for each zone.
References
Scire JS et al. (2000) CALPUFF Dispersion Model User”s Guide v5. EPA.
IAEA. Nuclear Safety, Security and Safeguards in Ukraine (ongoing). IAEA
WHO. (2021) Global Air Quality Guidelines.
Sokolov A et al. (2025) CALPUFF modelling of SO₂ in Dnipropetrovsk region. EGU25. Copernicus EGU25