Green hydrogen (Green H₂) is hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water using renewable electricity. Zero CO₂ emissions in production. Unlike grey hydrogen (from natural gas, high emissions) or blue hydrogen (gas + CCS, low emissions). The EU aims to become the main hub of H₂ consumption for decarbonizing heavy industry. Ukraine — with its steppe winds and strong solar resource in the south — is a potential exporter to the EU. The question is how realistic this is when the south is under shelling, and investment during wartime is limited.
Green hydrogen is a key technology for decarbonizing metallurgy, chemicals, and heavy transport. Photo: Gbm, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).
The colors of hydrogen: a simple taxonomy
Green: water electrolysis on renewables. CO₂ ~0.
Blue: steam methane reforming (SMR) + CCS. Low emissions.
Grey: SMR without CCS. 9–12 kg CO₂ per kg H₂.
Pink: electrolysis powered by nuclear. Low emissions.
Brown/Black: coal gasification. 20+ kg CO₂ per kg H₂.
Turquoise: methane pyrolysis. Solid carbon as by-product.
Today the world produces around 95 million tons of hydrogen per year. Grey H₂ accounts for 80%. Green is under 1%. The rest is blue and industrial by-product hydrogen.
Where hydrogen makes sense — and where it doesn”t
Makes sense (hard to decarbonize otherwise):
Metallurgy. Replacing coke in the blast furnace with H₂ in DRI (direct reduced iron). One ton of steel from green H₂ yields ~0.5 t CO₂ versus 2.3 t in traditional BF-BOF. ArcelorMittal, SSAB, Thyssenkrupp are building pilot plants. For Ukraine, Metinvest and Ferrexpo are considering it.
Chemicals. Green ammonia (for fertilizers) replacing grey. Green methanol for plastics. Synthetic fuels for aviation.
Heavy transport. Long-haul trucks, trains on non-electrified lines, ships. Batteries are too heavy.
Gas turbine power plants. Co-firing with natural gas, gradually moving to 100% H₂ in peaker plants.
Doesn”t make sense (better alternatives exist):
- Passenger cars — BEVs are 3× more efficient.
- Home heating — heat pumps are 4-5× more efficient.
- Most electric passenger trains — overhead contact line is better.
Cost: 2024 and the forecast
2024 production cost:
- Green H₂: $4–8/kg (EU: €3–5/kg).
- Blue: $2–3/kg.
- Grey: $1–2/kg.
Green is 2–4× more expensive than grey. The gap closes with a carbon price: at €80-100/t CO₂ green becomes competitive.
2030 forecast (IRENA, IEA):
- Green: $2–4/kg, driven by electrolyzer scale effects.
- Grey: $3–4/kg, driven up by CBAM and domestic carbon pricing.
- Parity achieved in countries with cheap renewables (Chile, Australia, MENA, Ukraine after stabilization).
2040-2050: $1–2/kg for green in the best locations. Grey without CCS is essentially phased out in the EU.
Ukraine: potential and constraints
Resources. Southern Ukraine has one of the best wind and solar profiles in Europe. Black Sea coast, Azov coast, steppe zone — wind farms can reach 50–60% capacity factor (excellent). Solar: 1200–1400 kWh/m²/year.
Infrastructure. The Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod gas pipeline and other branches are technically suitable for conversion to H₂ transport to the EU. Modernization is expensive but feasible.
EU demand. REPowerEU (2022) set the target: 10 Mt of domestic green H₂ production plus 10 Mt of imports by 2030. Ukraine is on the list of potential suppliers alongside North Africa, the Middle East, and Australia.
Constraints today:
- War. Southern wind resources are under shelling or partly under occupation. Without security for infrastructure, major investment does not come.
- Capital. A single large electrolysis project (100+ MW) costs €500 million – €1 billion. Reaching 1–3 Mt/year export scale requires $20–50 billion. Unacceptable risk during wartime without EU guarantees.
- Transport. Converting gas pipelines to H₂ is technically possible, but 100% H₂ requires replacing seals, valves, and compressors. Roughly 30–50% of greenfield capex.
- Competitors. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Australia, Chile, Morocco are investing aggressively. Ukraine”s advantage is proximity to the EU on transport, but it loses on capex without stabilization.
Status of Ukrainian projects, 2024–2025
DTEK — announced a pilot green H₂ production project in 2026–2028 based on wind farms. Status: preliminary feasibility study.
Ferrexpo — studying H₂ application at the Poltava GOK for DRI production. Long-term plan.
Ukrainian-German agreements (2022–2024) — memoranda on hydrogen partnership. Concrete projects paused pending stabilization.
Major commercial projects as of 2025: zero. This is reality, not pessimism.
Three under-discussed risks
1. “Green” may not be green. If an electrolyzer runs on grid electricity that includes coal power, the real carbon footprint can be higher than grey hydrogen. The EU Delegated Act (2023) set three criteria for genuinely green H₂: additionality (new renewables dedicated to the project), temporal correlation (hour-by-hour matching), geographic proximity. Without these — greenwashing.
2. Energy losses. Electrolysis: 70–80% efficiency. Liquefaction for transport: minus 20–30%. Fuel cell use: 50–60% efficiency. Together, only 20–30% of the initial energy reaches useful work. For hard-to-abate sectors this is acceptable, but “hydrogen economy instead of electrification” is technologically wrong framing.
3. Atmospheric leaks. H₂ is itself a greenhouse gas — indirectly, via its interaction with hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere. GWP20 ~32 (32× stronger than CO₂ over a 20-year horizon). Leaks during transport, storage, and use are a serious risk currently underestimated.
What this means for Ukraine
Green hydrogen is not “the fuel of the future for everything”. It is a niche instrument for hard-to-abate sectors where no alternatives exist. For Ukraine the question isn”t “will we make 10 Mt/year”, it is:
- Will domestic metallurgy move to H₂ in the next 15 years? (On this depends steel export prospects in a post-CBAM EU.)
- Will the Odesa/Mykolaiv ports become hubs for green ammonia exports after the war?
- Will Ukraine preserve its transit role — via pipelines converted to H₂ — in EU energy security?
These are strategic questions being answered now, not in 2040. Regulations, grants, standards are being set in the next 3–5 years.
YourAirTest”s role
Hydrogen projects are future clients for atmospheric modelling. A 100 MW electrolyzer + ammonia converter + liquefaction terminal is an industrial facility requiring CSRD reporting, EIA, and emissions monitoring. We are building the methodology for Ukrainian specifics.
FAQ
Will I drive a hydrogen car?
Unlikely. BEVs are the better technology for light passenger vehicles now and for the next 15 years. For trucks — possibly.
Will Ukraine become a “hydrogen giant”?
The potential is there. Realization depends on security stabilization, $20–50 billion in investment, and political will from both the EU and Ukraine. Realistic horizon: 15–25 years.
Is hydrogen safe to use?
With proper handling, yes. It is lighter than air and dissipates quickly. But it requires special materials and standards (like natural gas).
References
European Commission. (2020) A Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate-neutral Europe. COM(2020) 301.
International Energy Agency. (2023) The Future of Hydrogen. IEA
IRENA. (2022) Global Hydrogen Trade to Meet the 1.5°C Climate Goal.
European Commission. (2023) Delegated Act on Renewable Hydrogen. C(2023) 1086.
Ocko IB, Hamburg SP. (2022) Climate consequences of hydrogen emissions. Atmos Chem Phys 22:9349-9368.