Predictive Modeling for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Scenarios

In a world where preparedness and health protection are of paramount importance, YourAirTest has predicted and assessed the potential impact of accidents at five nuclear power plants in Ukraine.

We use Cesium, Cs-137 as the basis for the modeling, which is performed using Calpuff with our weather forecast generated by AI YAT-Meteo. Radioactivity is measured in becquerels (Bq), which reflects the number of decays per unit of time, and in microsieverts (µSv), which shows the level of radiation dose received by the human body.

This approach allows for effective risk assessment and more accurate forecasts, which is a key element for timely response and prevention of critical consequences of an accident at a nuclear power plant.

Map of Ukraine
Ukrainian NPP

The list of Ukrainian nuclear power plants

  • 1
    Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant
    • located near the city of Prypiat, Kyiv region
    • it had 4 power units, but after the 1986 disaster, reactor #4 was destroyed
    • in 2000, the NPP completely ceased operations, but remained a key facility for monitoring radiation contamination and the exclusion zone
    • in 2022, the Chornobyl NPP was temporarily controlled by Russian troops during a full-scale military invasion, but was later returned to Ukrainian control
  • 2
    Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
    • located in the city of Enerhodar, Zaporizhzhia region
    • it operated 6 power units with a total installed capacity of 6000 MW
    • in 2022, during a full-scale invasion, Zaporizhzhia NPP was occupied by Russian military forces and remains under their control, which poses serious risks to the safety of the facility and the surrounding region due to constant military operations in the NPP area
  • 3
    Rivne NPP
    • located in the city of Varash, Rivne region
    • it has 4 power units with a total installed capacity of 2835 MW
  • 4
    South Ukrainian NPP
    • located in the city of Yuzhnoukrainsk, Mykolaiv region
    • it has 3 power units with a total installed capacity of 3000 MW
  • 5
    Khmelnytsky NPP
    • located in the city of Netishyn, Khmelnytsky region
    • it has 2 power units with a total installed capacity of 2000 MW

Our endeavor involves creating a predictive system to model the consequences of a missile's impact on one of the potential nuclear power reactors in Ukraine.

Actions and Solutions

We've developed a service that forecasts the potential fallout for up to 48 hours. This system provides insights into the likely path of radioactive particles carried by the wind and their concentration levels. This information allows us to assess which areas might be affected and where the radiation's impact would be most severe.

Map of potential contamination

Our system is capable of calculating the potential radiation level in the event of an accident, modeling the spread of radioactive substances and determining the approximate radiation level in microsieverts (µSv) for a specified single case, which allows us to assess the possible impact on the environment and public health, as well as to determine the radiation level in becquerels per second (Bq/m3)..

Radioactivity is measured in becquerels (Bq), where 1 Bq corresponds to one decay of a radioactive atom per second. This is an indicator of the activity of a radiation source, i.e. the number of decays that occur over a certain period of time.

Microsieverts (µSv), on the other hand, are used to measure the dose of radiation exposure to the body. This is a unit that takes into account not only the number of radioactive decays, but also how radiation affects living tissues. 1 sievert (Sv) corresponds to a fairly high dose, so microsieverts (1 µSv = 1/1,000,000 Sv) are used to assess health effects at low radiation levels.

Thus, becquerels (Bq) measure the activity of a radiation source, and microsieverts (µSv) measure the dose of radiation exposure to the body, which depends on the type of radiation, distance from the source, and duration of exposure.

Radiation dose and its intensity

Radiation dose indicates the degree of radiation impact on the body. This value is usually expressed in millisieverts (mSv) or microsieverts (µSv), which reflects the amount of radiation received.

Dose rate describes how much radiation a person receives over a certain period of time. The unit of measurement for dose rate is the rem per hour (Sv/h).

Examples of radiation doses

0.01 mSv Radiation dose during a dental X-ray

0.1 mSv Dose during a chest X-ray

2 mSv Annual dose from cosmic radiation for aviation personnel

3.2 mSv Average annual dose that a person can receive from natural sources, medical procedures, etc.

20 mSv Maximum annual dose for employees working in an environment of high radiation risk

1000 mSv Dose capable of causing symptoms of radiation sickness (e.g. fatigue or nausea) if received over a short period of time

6000 mSv Potentially fatal dose if received over a day

Examples of external dose rates

0.04-0.30 μSv/h Natural radiation background in most regions

0.2-0.4 μSv/h Radiation level, when exceeded, automatic monitoring systems activate a warning

5 μSv/h Dose rate during an airplane flight at an altitude of 12 km

5 μSv/h The maximum level recorded in Finland after the Chornobyl accident

10 μSv/h The level at which it is recommended to avoid unnecessary time spent outdoors

30 μSv/h The dose emitted by a patient after isotope therapy; if the dose is below this level, the patient can be discharged

100 μSv/h Safety precautions must be taken, such as moving to an enclosed area

1-33 µSv 0-0.01 Bq/m3 34-334 µSv 0.01-0.1 Bq/m3 335-835 µSv 0.1-0.3 Bq/m3 835-1000 µSv 0.3-0.5 Bq/m3 1001-3000 µSv 0.5-1 Bq/m3 3001-8000 µSv 1-2.5 Bq/m3 8001-16000 µSv 2.5-5 Bq/m3 16001-33000 µSv 5-10 Bq/m3

The image shows a color scale that displays radiation levels in rem (Bq) and microsieverts per hour (µSv/h). In this system, colors correspond to different levels of radiation.

Users of the map are advised to pay attention to the color scale and correlate radiation levels with the scale indicators. If zones with elevated radiation levels are detected, it is necessary to avoid staying in these zones for a long time or to use personal protective equipment.

While we sincerely hope that such an event will never happen, we believe in the importance of modeling and understanding potential risks for the sake of our children's future. Being prepared today ensures a safer tomorrow